The College Football Playoff race has taken a dramatic turn, with Texas re-entering the spotlight while Miami’s ambitions are fading fast as the season approaches its climax. This past Saturday provided a tantalizing preview as we gear up for the release of the top 25 rankings. Texas’ victory over Vanderbilt added momentum, while wild results across the ACC have transformed the playoff conversation. As teams await the Tuesday announcement, anxiety is palpable.
In our latest projections heading into Week 11, Miami's disheartening loss to SMU puts their playoff hopes on shaky ground. Coach Mario Cristobal remains optimistic about his team's fate, but doubts have surfaced following their earlier streak that propelled them to the number two slot this season. Winning out for Miami is critical, yet it no longer feels like a certain path.
Another surprising development was Georgia Tech’s unexpected defeat by NC State, which eliminated the Yellow Jackets from the ranks of the unbeatens. This result has created a bit of a traffic jam at the top of the ACC standings, featuring teams such as Louisville, Virginia, SMU, Duke, and Pitt, all sitting with one loss.
On a similar note, Clemson’s recent loss to Duke has extended their streak of disappointing performances at home against Power Five teams to six games. This defeat puts Dabo Swinney in jeopardy of missing the postseason for the first time in his coaching career—an unfortunate turn of events for a squad many expected to be at the forefront of the ACC, especially as the season began. It also keeps Manny Diaz and his Blue Devils firmly in the postseason conversation.
In the SEC, Oklahoma’s victory over Tennessee functioned as a de facto elimination game for both teams, both sporting two losses. However, Oklahoma is facing a daunting list of remaining opponents if they hope to make a playoff push under coach Brent Venables.
Projected College Football Playoff Matchups
Quarterfinals
- Date: Jan. 1
Rose Bowl
Location: Pasadena, Calif.
Matchup: (1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) Winner
Date: Jan. 1
Sugar Bowl
Location: New Orleans, La.
Matchup: (2) Texas A&M vs. (7/10) WinnerDate: Jan. 1
Orange Bowl
Location: Miami, Fla.
Matchup: (3) Indiana vs. (6/11) WinnerDate: Dec. 31
Cotton Bowl
Location: Arlington, Texas
Matchup: (4) Alabama vs. (5/12) Winner
First Round
- Date: Dec. 19 or 20
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss.
Matchup: (8) Ole Miss vs. (9) Georgia Tech
Winner Faces: (1) Ohio State
Date: Dec. 19 or 20
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
Matchup: (7) BYU vs. (10) Texas
Winner Faces: (2) Texas A&MDate: Dec. 19 or 20
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.
Matchup: (6) Oregon vs. (11) Notre Dame
Winner Faces: (3) IndianaDate: Dec. 19 or 20
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.
Matchup: (5) Georgia vs. (12) Memphis
Winner Faces: (4) Alabama
Wondering why your team isn’t listed? Be sure to explore Brad Crawford's comprehensive bowl predictions for more insights.
Projected College Football Playoff Field Breakdown
Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): The Buckeyes have been immensely dominant this season, conceding only fifty-five points through eight games. Although it’s inevitable they will face stronger competition, for now, their unyielding form makes them a formidable contender as they eye a return to the playoffs.
Texas A&M (projected SEC champion): The Aggies have finally surged ahead of Alabama in the SEC pecking order, maintaining an unbeaten status as they approach their next three contests. The rivalry game against Texas looms large, with playoff implications firmly in view.
Indiana: The Hoosiers showcased their running prowess at Maryland, accumulating an impressive 367 rushing yards, thanks to the efforts of Kaelon Balck and Roman Hemby. With a friendly remaining schedule, Indiana is positioned to potentially go 12-0 by the time of the conference championship.
Alabama: If the Crimson Tide reach Atlanta with just one loss, even a defeat in the SEC title game may not significantly damage their standing in the eyes of the selection committee. Look for two representatives from the Big Ten and two from the SEC to secure the coveted first-round byes.
Georgia: Coach Kirby Smart discovered just how resilient his team is in a nail-biting win against Florida. By dominating upcoming matches against Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte, and Georgia Tech, they can solidify their standing in the playoff race. However, any slip-up in these games could complicate matters considerably for Georgia come season's end.
Oregon: While Oregon’s quest for a repeat Big Ten title appears slightly diminished, their primary objective remains viable—a playoff appearance. The upcoming clash against USC is crucial as they aim to make a strong impression on the selection committee.
BYU: As one of the few remaining unbeaten teams, BYU knows that a flawless finish will guarantee a playoff spot. Claims to the Big 12 title could further bolster their bid, especially following a tiebreaker scenario in this unpredictable league. Their next match against Texas Tech will be pivotal.
Ole Miss: The Rebels have a favorable schedule that could see them finish the regular season strongly, but complications may arise due to potential tiebreakers. However, extra rest before their anticipated playoff debut could be beneficial for Lane Kiffin's squad.
Georgia Tech: Their unexpected defeat to NC State has raised doubts about their consistency, especially in the competitive ACC. Various tiebreaker scenarios await them, yet this projection sees Georgia Tech advancing to and winning the ACC Championship.
Texas: Should a three-loss team make it to the playoffs, the Longhorns could achieve this status by splitting their remaining tough matchups against top SEC foes, finishing with a 9-3 record.
Notre Dame: Despite a less-than-stellar performance, they managed to overcome Boston College and keep their ten-win aspirations alive—crucial for playoff consideration, particularly if they can improve their record against ranked teams.
Memphis: Running back Frank Peasant helped facilitate an early 28-point lead against Rice, securing a promising victory and maintaining Memphis's position as the frontrunners among the Group of Five conferences. If they continue to win, a playoff berth could soon be within reach.
