Gunnar Henderson in 2026: Will He Reclaim His MVP Trajectory?
The Baltimore Orioles' "young core" – the phrase has become almost cliché. But are we truly seeing each player for who they individually are becoming? Yes, they're buddies, sharing spring training houses and forged in the fires of a tough rebuild. But treating them as a monolithic group after a season of ups and downs does them a disservice. Each player is on their own unique journey, experiencing distinct triumphs and setbacks. We need to dive deeper to understand their true potential, and how they fit into the Orioles' future.
Let's start with Gunnar Henderson, the incredibly talented shortstop.
2025: A "Down" Year That Was Still Pretty Darn Good
It speaks volumes about Henderson's talent that even in what many considered a disappointing year, he was still a valuable asset. He posted a 4.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement, according to FanGraphs), batted .274 with a .787 OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging), and smacked 17 home runs across 154 games.
Sure, those numbers don't quite reach the heights of his stellar 2024 season. But consider this: Henderson missed a chunk of spring training and the first week of the season due to a rib injury. He also started slowly upon his return. It's impressive he bounced back as well as he did.
His OPS hovered around .681 on May 1st. But from then on, he sported an .806 OPS and a 126 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) – and that even includes a sluggish September. The real missing piece? The power. His .438 slugging percentage for the season was significantly lower than the .529 he recorded in 2024. Even when considering the difference between his actual and expected slugging, there was a clear drop-off in power production.
Key Takeaways from 2025
Spring training matters! Missing that vital preparation time clearly impacted Henderson's early performance. The increased number of left-handed pitchers he faced (often elite ones) didn’t help matters either.
But here's the silver lining: Gunnar Henderson is a young player who's still evolving. We saw it in his defensive improvements at shortstop, where he dramatically reduced his error count from 25 to just eight. He solidified his routine plays while continuing to make the difficult ones.
And this is the part most people miss... Credit is due to Gunnar for his unwavering effort and passion. You could sense his frustration when things weren't clicking, yet he persevered throughout a difficult season. That speaks volumes about his character and dedication. The raw talent is undeniable.
Remembering the Promise
Let's not forget what Henderson is capable of! His 2024 season – featuring an .893 OPS, 37 home runs, and a remarkable 7.9 fWAR – serves as a potent reminder. Even in his first full season in 2023, he displayed significant power, hitting 28 home runs, despite a slow start.
Because of the flashes of brilliance, his athleticism, his defensive prowess at a key position, and his knack for getting on base, Henderson entered 2025 as one of the top young talents in baseball. Many considered him a future MVP contender.
2026: Best Case, Worst Case
The belief in his potential remains strong, especially considering the main factor holding him back was power output.
His exit velocities were generally consistent with previous years. His hard-hit rate dipped slightly, from 53.9% in 2024 to 49.2% in 2025. He hit ground balls a bit more frequently, but not enough to fully explain the drop in power.
This suggests a swing issue that's difficult to correct mid-season and requires focused offseason work. I'd wager that Henderson's 2026 home run total will be much closer to his 2024 numbers than his 2025 tally. If he can recapture that power while maintaining his other strengths, he'll be right back in the MVP conversation.
But here's where it gets controversial... The downside is that Henderson might overcompensate in his pursuit of power. He might change his swing too much, and it might not work. Or, it might work, but it might come at the expense of other aspects of his game. Players get paid for slugging, especially when arbitration and free agency come around.
While Henderson will undoubtedly strive for improvement for both himself and the team, an excessive focus on power could detract from his overall offensive package. The worst-case scenario? He oscillates between offensive extremes, never quite finding the sweet spot he demonstrated in 2024.
What Can We Expect?
Remember Henderson's slow start in 2023? He bounced back impressively and, until 2025, never looked back. Yet, as challenging as April 2023 was, both April and September of 2025 were even worse in terms of wRC+.
In other words, we've likely seen Henderson at his absolute worst, and even then, he was still a valuable player. That suggests that 2025 represents a potential floor for a healthy Henderson.
Development isn't linear. We've heard that repeatedly. At 24, Henderson is far from his peak. Improvement may not be immediate or consistent year after year, but he's on a trajectory of continuous growth. I anticipate nothing but upward movement from him. That kind of returning star power will be a crucial foundation for the Orioles' resurgence as a contender.
Food for thought: Do you think Henderson will prioritize power over all else in his offseason training? Will he be able to recapture his 2024 form, or is there a risk of him trying too hard and losing some of his other strengths? Share your predictions and thoughts in the comments below!
